UPDATE: Milk Price Index definitely back on

Index

SECOND UPDATE 23/01/18: Hours after the Department provided this update, the Minister’s office rang to clarify the CMPI’s status with this news:

“The Minister last week met with dairy farmers and senior dairy leaders who expressed support for the further development of the dairy price index.

“The Government is committed to working with industry to deliver the index to provide dairy farmers with extra information to help them plan and risk manage their businesses.

“The Minister is encouraged by the positive approach of dairy farmers to rebuild from recent challenges to create a stronger and more profitable future for the industry.”

It’s on again!


UPDATE 23/01/18: After the UDV president, Adam Jenkins, tweeted that the post below was incorrect, I asked the Department for further clarification. Here is the response:

  • “The contract in place to deliver the Commodity Milk Price Index was terminated by mutual agreement.”
  • “The department will put options to the Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources on the best way forward to deliver on the government’s commitment to achieve greater transparency and market signals in domestic and global milk prices, in accordance with the advice received from industry.
  • “This may still be via the CMPI.”

Meanwhile, Milk Maid Marian has been informed that the team which had won the contract to deliver the Commodity Milk Price Index has not been permitted to engage with stakeholders since late last year.


The Milk Price Index intended to offer farmers transparency around farmgate milk prices has been quietly scrapped.

It’s not yet clear where the $2 million set aside for the project will be reallocated.

In response to an email from Milk Maid Marian, a spokesperson for the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources said:

“The Department of Agriculture and Water Resources and Webber Quantitative Consulting have mutually agreed to terminate the contract to deliver the Commodity Milk Price Index.”
“The department will put options to the Minister for Agriculture and Water Resources on the best way forward to deliver on the government’s commitment to achieve greater transparency and market signals in domestic and global milk prices, in accordance with the advice received from industry.”
For Milk Maid Marian’s money, some really rigorous research into how the milk pricing system could be reshaped to address the issues identified by the ACCC would be very well spent indeed.

 

ACCC delivers a ladder for dairy farmers

All I could think as I scrolled through the interim ACCC dairy report was “Wow!”. Any fears farmers had that the ACCC would fail to understand the intricacies of our industry have been well and truly put to bed. This report proves the regulator gets it.

“…the problems we have identified in this inquiry emanate from the inherent bargaining power imbalances in the industry, particularly between processors and farmers.”
– p. 22, ACCC Dairy Inquiry Interim Report

While there are more than 200 pages of very interesting information, the really important section deals with the regulator’s eight recommendations:

1. Processors and farmers should enter into written contracts for milk supply that are signed by the farmer.

2. All processors should simplify their contracts where possible, including by minimising the number of documents and clearly indicating which documents contain terms and conditions of milk supply.

3. Milk supply contracts should not include terms which unreasonably restrict farmers from switching between processors.

4. The industry should establish a process whereby an independent body can administer mediation and act as a binding arbitrator or expert in relation to contractual disputes between farmers and processors.

5. Farmers should ensure they have properly considered the legal and financial implications of contracts with processors.

6. Processors should publish information identifying how their pricing offers apply to individual farm production characteristics to enable better farm income forecasts.

7. The Voluntary Dairy Code should be strengthened
Notwithstanding Recommendation 8, the Voluntary Code will continue to operate for at least the short-to-medium term. The following amendments should be made:
(a) processors to include a comprehensive dispute resolution process in their milk supply agreements, including where this relates to compliance with the Voluntary Code itself
(b) processors to provide timely price and other contract information before requiring farmers to make a decision about renewing a contract.
(c) with regard to section 6 of the Voluntary Code, removal of the incumbent processor’s first right of refusal regarding a farmer’s supply of milk to an alternative processor.

8. A mandatory code of conduct within the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 should be considered for the dairy industry.

It’ll take time to digest the report properly and I’m betting that some of the details will be hotly debated over the next few weeks. That’s a good thing.

This ACCC inquiry is not a whitewash. The system is broken and such a strong report offers us a way to climb out of the deep hole we’re in towards the light.

The change has only just begun: Rabo

Buckle up. That’s the message threaded right through a report on Australia’s dairy supply chain by Rabobank‘s Michael Harvey released today.

While so many of us are aching for some stability, for things to just settle down a bit, the report crystallizes fears that change has only just begun.

Michael’s report cites three causes for continuing change:

  1. Down by 800 million litres in southern Australia, milk production is at its lowest in two decades
  2. Australia’s largest processor, MG, has “stumbled and remains under pressure”
  3. The lower price farmers are paid for milk has triggered a boom in stainless steel investment and aggressive recruitment

The scale of the shake up is huge

RaboProcShare

p. 2, Harvey M., (2017), The Australian Dairy Supply Chain

While Rabobank’s chart illustrates just how much milk MG has hemorrhaged, it also shows that MG continues to be a critical player in the whole industry’s fortunes. As does Fonterra, now more than ever.

Fonterra is abandoning the Bonlac Supply Agreement, which used the MG price as a guaranteed baseline, for something yet to be announced.

MG, the Rabobank report concludes, has suffered “structural damage” that will, if it can recover, take years to repair before the co-op can resume the role of price setter.

So, here is the kicker in Michael Harvey’s own words:

“The reality is that the old system of price discovery for raw milk has broken down and a new method of price discovery will need to emerge, meaning that, in the future, dairy farm operators will be operating in a more commercially oriented and flexible market for their milk.”
– p. 4, Harvey M., (2017), The Australian Dairy Supply Chain

Is it a warning? Perhaps. Change is often difficult but it brings fresh opportunities, too.

Competition will drive farmgate milk prices for a while
Rabobank notes that while milk supply has fallen by 800 million litres, enough new stainless steel is coming on line this year to process another 700 million litres, with more expansion planned. It expects competition to drive milk prices in the medium term.

Milk flowing beyond borders
According to the report, there is an increasing appetite for milk processors to spread supply risk beyond their traditional collection areas.

We’ve seen this locally, with Warrnambool Cheese & Butter, for example, recruiting milk in Gippsland.

A rethink of the current price system
Michael Harvey devotes a significant portion of the report considering the impact of the production decline on Australia’s status as a preferred supplier. “Alarm bells are ringing for international customers,” he writes.

In this context, Mr Harvey also discusses the tension between the need for flat milk supply versus the lowest cost of milk production – on one hand processors can’t manage a very “peaky” supply and, on the other, the discounting of Spring milk has forced up the cost of production for farmers, stifling growth.

Let’s just hope that out of this crisis comes a fresh start.

Planning for disaster while dodging a bullet

Daffodil
Today’s blossoming of the very first daffodil reminded me we’re on the cusp of Spring – our 12 weeks of make or break on the farm.

Only yesterday, a banker asked me how the outlook was on farm. Anxious is the answer.

The feed pinch
The big dry has sent grain futures soaring, signalling that we’re in for exorbitant grain prices by Christmas.

Meanwhile, it’s been very hard to grow grass and the dry subsoils provide little moisture in reserve for what the Bureau is predicting will be a drier-than-normal Spring.

While we’ve invested heavily in a small amount of irrigation infrastructure, the dam is still well below full and we have no access to the aquifer.

At the same time, high quality hay suitable for the milkers is in very short supply, so I’ve been trying to lock in feed this harvest before it becomes too tight to mention.

The money pinch
Most dairy products are either traded internationally in US dollars or sold to domestic customers at a rate linked to international commodity prices.

This means that as the Australian dollar rises against the US dollar, the value of our milk falls. And rise it has, reaching 80 cents for the first time in two years.

Green shoots bring hope
On the other side of the ledger, there’s been cause for hope this morning.

Despite the exchange rate fears, the processor we supply, Fonterra, lifted its price for milk from $5.30kgMS to $5.50kgMS (from roughly 40.5 cents per litre to about 42 cents).

Second, I found a heap of worms slithering across the track in a bid to avoid the saturated soil. Yes, saturated! For the first time this winter, we finally have soft top soils.

Better late than never. Let’s hope the rain keeps coming and we don’t need to feed the cows massive amounts of grain to get through another drought.

Worm

Playing games with our lives

GAMP

GAMP: Before MG in Gippsland

With just a couple of exceptions, the processors seem to have learned just one thing from the last year of chaos: loyalty is now a luxury item.

The jumble of opening prices, incentives, secret deals and long-term contracts with short-term prices shows that, by and large, we are in an era where it’s every man, woman and child for themselves.

It wasn’t always this way. Until recently, you could not buy loyalty.

Even though there were more lucrative options, most Australian dairy farmers chose to supply the last big co-op, Murray Goulburn. For generation after generation, we knew in our hearts that only a strong co-op, which put farmers first, should set the pace for the farmgate milk price.

Since the April/May debacle when farm gate milk prices crashed to disastrous levels, farmer loyalty has become gossamer thin. The main theme from Dairy Australia’s farmer survey reported in its June Situation & Outlook was that “Trust in processors has taken a knock”. Err, yes, just a little.

“In the past 12 months, 11% of respondents changed the processor they supply and a further 17% would like to change supplier – 9% are considering it and 8% would like to change but are unable to.”
“Farms with herds greater than 700 cows were most likely to have changed processor or to be considering a change.
“In general however, most farmers tend to be loyal to their processors historically and 61% have remained with one processor for the past 10 years.
“Milk price is predictably the primary reason for changing or considering changing processor, however 21% also expressed concerns with processor management and the treatment of farmers, 12% were concerned about the ‘clawback’ and 8% lack trust in their company and feel they have not been honest.”
– p. 5, Dairy Australia Situation & Outlook, June 2017

DA’s survey was conducted in February and March – well before MG opened first, very early. Everyone was watching. For years now, MG has set the benchmark milk price, pushing it as high as it could go in the spirit of a farmer-owned co-op.

This time was different.

MG’s price of $4.70 per kg of milk solids (about 36 cents per litre) was simply far, far too low. MG’s competitors needed milk and were willing to pay not just a little more but a lot more and farmers have been scrambling for the life boats in a bid to survive a third tough year in a row.

Meanwhile, other processors have been offering “loyalty” bonuses or locking farmers into long-term supply contracts without the long-term prices to match. It all flies in the face of the honour, transparency and simplicity the processors are apparently set to pledge under the Code of Conduct.

Today, MG has performed a minor miracle, lifting its opening price from the miserable $4.70 to $5.20 before the season has even begun. This 11 per cent increase puts the MG price close to breakeven for many of its suppliers.

It’s fantastic news.

Farming families across the country will breathe a little easier tonight and, for that, I am very grateful.

But, like the “forgiveness” of the MSSP, like Fonterra’s 40 cent payment, this about-face leaves me wondering why it was necessary to inflict so much pain and hardship on farmers in the first place.

Bitterness is never a becoming attribute but, with processors pulling one stunt after another seemingly without regard for the farmers stretched to their financial, physical and mental limits, it’s getting harder and harder to maintain the faith.

Opening prices so far

This post will be updated as announcements are made and can be confirmed. Wherever possible, there is a link to the processors’ full announcements if you click on their names below:
MG $4.70, revised to $5.20
Bega $5.50
WCB $5.50
Burra $5.45-$5.65 if farmers lock into three years of unknown pricing or $5.05 – 5.25 without commitment.
Fonterra $5.30 plus bonus 40 cents
Parmalat $5.70

NBtweet

Spreadsheets for brekky, lunch and dinner again

ForkLoRes

The first opening milk price announcement for the new season has been made. And it’s spreadsheet time again for farmers and processors alike.

Why? Because Murray Goulburn has come in at $4.70 kgMS – the equivalent of about 36 cents per litre.

Farmers milked dry will lead to empty stainless
Very few Victorian dairy farmers can produce milk at that price. The most recent industry figures – during the 15/16 drought – put the average cost of production at $5.72 (see below). The 14/15 Dairy Farm Monitor report showed $5.36 and 13/14’s figure was $5.42.

So, yes, the seasons and the cost of inputs like grain affect the cost of production but this opening milk price is simply not enough and my heart goes out to every MG farmer wondering how to make ends meet.

Farmers will need to cut costs to the bone (again) to survive. How? Well, like the year we’ve just had, it’ll be every little thing possible, right down to insurance but there is one obvious variable cost to consider: stockfeed.

As you can see from the table above, “Purchased feed and agistment” amounted to a whopping 59 per cent of variable costs. Granted, prices were high that year but feed costs always are the biggest, fastest and first lever farmers pull when forced to bring the money train to an emergency stop.

At the same time, the value of cows sent to market is 29 per cent up on the five-year average.

Any farmer working on her spreadsheets will find a very powerful case to sell cows and buy as little grain and hay as she dares. In other words, make less milk.

Empty stainless is not profitable for processors
Just three years ago, the media was dubbing milk “white gold“. China’s seemingly unquenchable thirst for our milk drew breathless news reports and excited investors hot off the back of the mining boom.

Even the well established processors spent millions on stainless steel and now they have to fill it.

For example, Fonterra increased the capacity of its Stanhope cheese factory in a $120 million rebuild and will need a lot more milk from Northern Victoria, which has suffered a massive 18.4% fall in production year to date.

NthVic

Source: Dairy Australia http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/Markets-and-statistics/Production-and-sales/Latest-statistics.aspx

While the $4.70 opening price will have milk recruiters’ phones ringing hot, Fonterra and its rivals cannot assume that skimming milk from an ailing MG at a small premium will suffice. They will need to offer a sustainable milk price to assure supply over the lifetime of their investments.

Because, unlike gleaming multi-million-dollar processing machinery, cows and the farming families who tend them cannot be simply switched off and back on again.

If the co-op cannot manage a viable milk price, competition should
Traditionally, Murray Goulburn Co-op has been the pacemaker. It set the benchmark price that others had to match or better.

Now that the co-op is struggling to keep up with the pace, will the other processors take the opportunity to milk farmers dry or will competition and the need to fill expensive stainless save the day?

It’s a nervous wait.